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Dan Zwicker, AgriVisor analyst, gave attendants of the OFBF annual meeting in Cincinnati a glimpse of what to expect in the commodity markets for the coming year.

Zwicker discussed effects of weather, trends and foreign markets. Because of the poor weather conditions experienced by the Eastern Corn Belt, the area is short on crop but Zwicker believes the basis level will stay very strong. He also said there would be little economic benefits to hold inventory compared to a few years ago. Because of low livestock numbers, feed usage will be cut drastically.

"Corn sales got off to a slow start, but look to have turned the corner if the last few weeks are any indication," Zwicker said.

Soybean sales are slower than last year’s pace, but stronger. Zwicker also recommends farmers part with old crop beans. He said the soybean market usually follows a 36-week cycle, and he predicts the market will stay strong into the spring months. The corn market usually follows a 45-week cycle from low to low. Another low is predicted for March, but April, May and June will be back to more seasonal prices. Zwicker said there is potential for prices to reach $3.25.

A poor crop in South America could bolster the U.S. corn and soybean market. South America is experiencing a crop year much like the past year in the United States. Not all of the corn acres in South America were planted by Dec. 1, which means farmers will see some acres switched to soybeans. Corn production in South America will be lower, and if the country has less than an 83-million ton bean crop, U.S. beans could go higher than $6.25.

Zwicker said he believes the worst four or five years for the wheat market are behind us, and he does believe the next two or three years are going to be better.

Zwicker said livestock producers have a green light for 2003. "It looks like the livestock farmers are going to have everything go their way for once," he said.

Dennis Heyob of Montgomery County said Zwicker gave an informational and interesting session. "He was insightful. I think he gave us a good guide as to how we would want to market," Heyob said. "(Farmers) would like it to be laid out in concrete, but the market doesn’t work that way."