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American farmers, who proudly proclaim "We feed the world," may find this tough to swallow. Increasingly, the world is feeding us. Within as few as three years, the United States is expected to import more food than we export.

"Since 1996, the agricultural trade surplus has shrunk from $27.3 billion to $10.5 billion," USDA economist Alberto Jerardo reports in the Economics Research Service’s publication Amber Waves. "Although U.S. agricultural exports continue to rise, imports are increasing nearly twice as fast."

That rapid growth in imports will result in the United States having its first farm trade deficit since 1959. Purdue economist Phillip Paarlberg said food export and import trend lines are converging. "It might be 2007, 2008 or 2010, but eventually those lines will cross, " he said.

Jerardo’s report paints a very clear picture of what has happened recently. In 2002, 13 percent of the food consumed by Americans was imported. That’s up from 9 percent in 1985. And during that same time, Americans more than doubled the share of their food dollar spent on imported products. Jerardo said the biggest import gains were seen for fruits, juices, vegetables and nuts. Also expanding are products that reflect new, more exotic consumer demands; the types of foods "we’ve never eaten before and haven’t produced here," according to OFBF Vice President of Agricultural Ecology Constance Jackson. Falling into this category are ethnic foods or off-season crops farmers either haven’t or can’t produce here at home. But higher imports are driven by more than agronomics. Economics plays a role as well. In recent years, imports of red meat and dairy products have increased. So too have imports of grain and grain products. Jerardo explained, "Trade is simply a means of providing for needs and wants that are not satisfied domestically or are more cheaply produced elsewhere."

"Fruit and vegetable producers are going to view this with alarm," according to Paarlberg. Conversely, "If you produce corn and soybeans, these items still have strong, positive net exports, so this [trade deficit] really isn’t going to be much of a factor in the near term."

But the Purdue economist cautioned U.S. crop producers to not be complacent about their dominant role in world exports. "If we’re going to maintain that export position, we have to remain competitive. And one of the issues that gets tied up in this is farm policy," Paarlberg said. He noted real estate values and cash rents in the Midwest are strengthened in part by farm support programs. "When you look at cost of production information, we see that relative to South America, we have high fixed costs. A lot of that is land. And a lot of that land cost reflects government payments. We have to remain vigilant about this, or we won’t be the low-cost producer of corn and soybeans," he added.

American Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman recently spoke about the changing nature of farm trade. "Trade liberalization legitimately causes concern for many in agriculture. Trade for farmers is indeed a two-sided coin, but we have many goods to sell to the 96 percent of the world's population who live outside our borders."

Stallman is quick to emphasize that "fair" is the operative word in negotiating international trade rules. "Our borders are relatively open now – we impose an average tariff on competing ag products of about 12 percent, yet our goods face a global tariff average of 62 percent," he said. Stallman added he believes American farmers should expect and get more fair treatment through multilateral World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Specifically, AFBF is seeking increased market access, elimination of export subsidies and a fair method of limiting domestic support levels.

Even if American farmers get the fair treatment they seek, food imports won’t stop. That’s because, as Jerardo stated simply, "Trade brings Americans the foods they want." So he forecasts that imports will continue to increase independent of what our exports do.

That’s a reality many farmers may not like but is one they will need to adapt to. According to OFBF’s Jackson, the changing trade picture is an opportunity for American farmers. Open trade, she said, is ultimately "driving us to be competitive in the long term." Which means that the prospect of America being a net food importer may hurt a farmer’s pride, but it doesn’t have to hurt the farmer’s wallet.

To read the entire report on U.S. import and exports, go to www.ofbf.org, click on Publications, Buckeye Farm News, March 29 issue, and this article.