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While soybean rust failed to reach Ohio last growing season, how far it travels 2006 will largely depend on the weather.

Several experts recently addressed the issue at a soybean rust education seminar in Plain City. They said rust is currently overwintering on kudzu in southern states in greater levels than 2005.

Dry conditions inhibited the spread of the disease last year, according to Anne Dorrance, an Ohio State University plant pathologist. She said whether it reaches Ohio this season will depend on how far south the freeze line falls, how much rust is overwintering and how quickly it will get moving.

"I think it’s going to rise a little bit earlier, but will it rise early enough?" she said.

Jim Marois, a University of Florida plant pathologist, said each year the amount of inoculum (rust that overwinters) will build up in the south, and when enough inoculum has accumulated, the disease will "blow up very quickly."

But Dorrance noted that Ohio will have an advantage over southern states as the result of a comprehensive soybean rust monitoring system that we'll alert Ohio farmers months ahead of time if they are at risk.

While normal wind patterns, not hurricanes, were believed to cause the spread of soybean rust spores last year, Marois said spores could also hitch a "Cadillac ride" on the back of soybean aphids.

For now, Dorrance said researchers can only speculate and the best strategy for producers is to go back to the basics.

"Do anything you can do to maximize yield for any given year," she said.