Growing demand may create corn dilemmaPublished on 11/13/2006The United States will need as much as six million additional acres of corn in the spring. The questions are where will farmers grow it and how will they store it. Matt Roberts, an Ohio State University agricultural economist, said ethanol production is helping to drive the demand for corn to unprecedented levels. "We're consuming more corn in this country than we've ever produced in a single year," he said. Another major player is China whose demand for feed has skyrocketed as its animal agriculture industry expands, Roberts said. Roberts was one of several economists who spoke at Ohio State University's Policy and Outlook Meeting, which covered topics such as energy, trade, inputs and farm policy. The university will hold similar meetings at locations throughout Ohio in the coming months. One possibility for obtaining additional corn acres is to put land that is in conservation back into production. Economists also expect many farmers to replace soybeans with continuous corn. But converting soybean acres to corn could exacerbate storage challenges because it will result in more grain being produced overall. With corn yields trending toward more than 160 bushels per acre, farmers could face bottlenecks at harvest next year. Currently, some farmers are experiencing waits of up to 18 months to have grain bins built. The good news is that high demand will keep prices strong, but Roberts cautioned against holding out in hopes of even better prices. "The biggest threat to the financial health of farmers in the upcoming year, will be farmers themselves," he said. He remarked that if farmers "can't make a lot of money selling $3.25 corn, you might need a new job." This may not come as good news for the domestic livestock industry, which Roberts described as a weak bidder for corn compared to ethanol companies. While the ethanol product dried distillers grain could be fed to livestock, farmers will have to pay to transport it and determine how to use it in their feed rations. "There's going to be a transition and it will show up in costs," said Brian Roe, an Ohio State livestock economist. Roberts said the market would eventually work itself out as "it always does." And he was skeptical that the ethanol industry would continue to maintain its current rapid growth. "When was the last time a bubble like this ended happily?" he asked. To see a list of dates and locations of upcoming Ohio State Policy and Outlook meetings, visit www.ofbf.org and click on featured links. | |




