Trans-Pacific Partnership approval would boost Ohio ag exports, income

Implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership would boost Ohio’s agricultural cash receipts by $186.6 million per year compared to not approving the free trade pact, according to an economic analysis by American Farm Bureau. Net agricultural exports in Ohio would increase by $96.7 million per year and result in adding more than 730 jobs to the state’s economy, according to the analysis.

Eliminating tariffs and other trade barriers on Ohio’s agricultural exports to TPP-partner countries would increase trade for a range of Ohio agricultural products, including pork, soybeans, beef and processed foods.

Twelve nations, including the United States, have formally agreed to the TPP, which is the biggest regional trade pact in history. The U.S. International Trade Commission is preparing an official analysis for the administration, which will formally ask Congress to ratify the deal.

Ratifying TPP would boost demand for U.S. farm and food products among nearly 500 million consumers in Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Overall, AFBF estimates TPP implementation would increase the United States’ annual net farm income by $4.4 billion. Leading the way would be the livestock industry with cash receipts projected to be $5.8 billion higher than without the trade pact and $2.7 billion higher in cash receipts for the crop industry, according to Farm Bureau economist Veronica Nigh.

“TPP will mean a boat-load of expanded exports and increased demand for America’s agricultural products,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said.

Duval said approval of TPP would tear down trade barriers and help level the playing field for U.S. agricultural exports to 11 nations across the Pacific Rim.

Not approving the trade deal would have adverse effects, too.

“While our farmers and ranchers have a lot to gain with passage, the consequences of not approving the deal would be harmful,” Duvall said. “Every day we delay means lost markets as other TPP countries implement the deal’s advantages with each other. We are already arriving at the party late because, right now, expanded trade due to TPP is going on across the Pacific Rim – just without us.”

AFBF’s analysis forecasts farm-price increases for corn (5 cents per bushel), soybeans (12 cents per bushel), wheat (2 cents per bushel) and rice (16 cents per hundredweight). AFBF also predicts price increases for beef ($2.66 per hundredweight), pork ($2.45 per hundredweight) and poultry ($1.40 per hundredweight). In the dairy sector, prices would increase for butter ($2.81 per hundredweight), cheese ($1.68 per hundredweight), nonfat dry milk ($1.29 per hundredweight) and all milk (21 cents per hundredweight).

Net trade is expected to increase for rice, cotton, beef, pork, poultry, butter, cheese, soybeans and products and non-fat dry milk, according to AFBF’s analysis.

While the analysis projects that the net trade for corn will decline by 45.3 million bushels, overall demand and use for corn is forecast to increase by 54.2 million bushels. Corn revenues are expected to rise by $680 million per year and prices are projected to rise by 5 cents per bushel, due to higher domestic feed use from additional beef and pork exports created by TPP.

AFBF has a full analysis and state fact sheets available.