Forecast for 2025 Lake Erie algal bloom released
The 2025 algal bloom for the Western Lake Erie Basin is expected to have a severity index of 3, according to the final forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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The 2025 algal bloom for the Western Lake Erie Basin is expected to have a severity index of 3, according to the final forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This forecast, based on a 1 to 10 scale, uses an ensemble of different models, which consider phosphorus loading into Lake Erie during the spring and early summer.
This forecast will once again put Ohio farmers and their nutrient management practices in the spotlight. Thanks to H2Ohio and other conservation programs being used by thousands of farmers on millions of acres in the Western Lake Erie Watershed, positive results are being realized.
If this year’s forecast holds true, it will continue a trend of mild to moderate blooms. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, outbreaks have been less severe between 2020 and 2024 than those of 10 to 15 years ago.
“We have been focused on helping farmers identify solutions to the water quality challenges in our state for decades,” said Jordan Hoewischer, director of water quality and research for Ohio Farm Bureau. “OFBF, along with the rest of the agricultural community, has gone above and beyond to help solve the water quality challenges of our state and has committed millions of dollars to water quality and nutrient management research, as well as providing strong support of Governor DeWine’s H2Ohio program, and those efforts at the farm level are making a difference downstream.”
According to a research summary by The Ohio State University, over the past 30 years farmers have reduced their fertilizer usage by 33%, while 65% of Ohio counties have decreasing trends in mean soil test phosphorus. Heidelberg University studies show that the dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) going into Lake Erie has seen a downward trend over the past five years.
“The combined factors of increased yield, reduced fertilizer application, and better manure utilization led to a net removal of 8 pounds of phosphorus per acre across all Ohio agricultural lands from 2003 to 2022,” Hoewischer said. “In other words, more phosphorus is coming out of the soil and captured in the harvested crops through crop production than the nutrients that farmers apply to their fields every year.”
NOAA will release the final algal bloom statistics for 2025 in September.
This is a news release for use by journalists. Questions should be directed to Ty Higgins, 614-246-8231 or [email protected].
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